Understanding demand is central for the planning of all manner of healthcare services. Alas future healthcare demand is more complex than simple population demographics and a deeper understanding of a range of factors is required. Refer to the 'Emergency Admission' folder. No forecast stands alone and upper and lower confidence intervals should always be a part of any forecasting exercise.

The evaluation of what may appear to be excess demand requires adjustment for age, deprivation, ethnicity, students and level of private insurance. HCAF have developed advance methods to apply these factors and to estimate levels of private insurance for blocks of 300 head of population. The same tools can be used to inform social marketing.

The evaluation of demand in the NHS has been seriously compromised by counting and coding issues. Studies by HCAF have shown that even different sites of the same Trust can count and code in widely different ways. This is especially the case for any zero day stay admission (elective or emergency).

Go to the 'Emergency Admissions' folder for a list of references relating to trends and cycles in emergency admissions. The concepts contained in these papers is equally applicable to understanding elective admissions.

Forecasting Demand Series

Jones R (2010) Forecasting year-end activity. BJHCM 16(5): 248-249  Read Me

Jones R (2010) Forecasting demand to support commissioning. BJHCM 16(6): in press