Understanding demand is central for the planning of all manner of healthcare services. Alas future healthcare demand is more complex than simple population demographics and a deeper understanding of a range of factors is required. No forecast stands alone and upper and lower confidence intervals should always be a part of any forecasting exercise.

The evaluation of demand in the NHS has been seriously compromised by counting and coding issues. Studies by HCAF have shown that even different sites of the same Trust can count and code in widely different ways. This is especially the case for any zero or same day stay admission (elective or emergency).

The evaluation of what may appear to be excess demand requires adjustment for age, deprivation, ethnicity, students and level of private insurance. HCAF have developed advanced methods to apply these factors and to estimate levels of private insurance for blocks of 300 head of population. The same tools can be used to inform social marketing and to shed light on why intervention rates may differ between GP practices.

The 'Emergency Admissions' folder contains details of studies relating to trends and cycles in emergency admissions. The concepts contained in these papers is equally applicable to understanding elective admissions. Indeed such long-term cycles also apply to emergency department and outpatient attendances.

If you are seeking to forecast demand as part of a business case our two decades of experience may prove invaluable. Contact Dr Rod Jones at hcaf_rod@yhaoo.co.uk

Forecasting Demand Series

British Journal of Healthcare Management (BJHCM)

Jones R (2010) Forecasting year-end activity.

  BJHCM 16(5): 248-249  Read Me

Jones R (2010) Forecasting demand to support commissioning.

  BJHCM 16(8): 392-393  Read Me

Jones R (2010) Forecasting emergency department attendances.

  BJHCM 16(10): 495-496  Read Me

Jones R (2011) Death and future healthcare expenditure.

  BJHCM 17(9): 436-437  Read Me

Jones R (2012) Ambulance call-outs and 'disruptive technology'

   BJHCM 18(2): in press

Jones R (2012) Forecasting births and midwifery demand.

  The Maternity Magazine (in press)

Jones R (2012) Trends in outpatient attendances (in preparation)