HCAF have developed innovative models and tools to support you in making the best use of scarce resources.


The 'Financial Risk' folder

provides further detail regarding this vitally important aspect of GP commissioning.




   For GP Commissioners






Level Playing Field


Model Description for Circulation


World Class Commissioning HCAF Resume


Health Visitor Workload


Activity & finance modelling for healthcare reconfiguration





































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Healthcare Analysis & Forecasting

Supporting your commitment to healthcare excellence

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HCAF provides a range of tools to assist in attaining World Class Commissioning and in minimising financial risk. These include:


* Actuarial risk analysis

* Forecasting demand

* Identifying excess levels of acute interventions

* Statistical stress testing of business case assumptions

* Tools for social marketing

* Patient flow in a free choice environment

* Optimum site analysis for new facilities

* The contract management tool


Commissioners will benefit from the most up to date national and international research into the nature of health care costs and the unique growth patterns experienced for particular diagnoses.


In a world where every project has to make a real return on investment the service offered by HCAF on stress testing of business case assumptions is a unique 'must have' for any project. All business cases have implied assumptions behind every component of the business model. Sophisticated software allows all assumptions to simultaneously vary (as they would in the real world) to reveal the full range of financial outcomes and their likelihood.


Two decades of experience has led to the conclusion that the process of formulating activity and financial forcasts is subject to considerable error in that incorrect assumptions are often applied regarding the underlying growth trends. This is an important area of commissioning since 'unexpected' financial pressures then arise due to the difference between reality and the forecasts.


For an impartial evaluation of the financial risk implied in your commissioning plans either from incorrect assumptions or other sources of bias contact Dr Rod Jones at hcaf_rod@yahoo.co.uk


HCAF also provide training and mentoring for GP commissioners in the areas of forecasting demand and the financial risk associated with commissioning.


    GP commissioners will

    find the material under the

    'Financial Risk' folder of great

    interest. Material in the

    'Emergency Admissions' and

    'Forecasting Demand' folders is

    also worth reviewing. See the    

    'Capacity Management' folder for

    details of the capacity & contract

    management tool.